Global ad spend is set to top £762 billion (US$1 trillion) for the first time this year, with WARC upgrading its previous 2024 growth forecast up by 2.3 percentage points to 10.5%.
Led by a faster-than-expected uptake in AI-enabled media tools, this would reflect the best performance in six years if the post-Covid bounce back of 2021 (+27.9%) is disregarded.
In a blow to global competition however, three companies (Amazon, Google and Meta) are expected to dominate as much as 44% of all advertising spend this year, rising to over 46% by 2026.
North America is expected to lead the way over the coming months with ad spend rising 8.6% to a total of £265 billion, followed by a more modest 2% rise in the sizeable APAC market (£207 billion).
Europe will continue to see steady 5% growth with ad spend mounting to £126 billion, but will be outpaced by 6.2% growth in Latin America (£24 billion.) Despite ongoing conflict, the Middle East remains largely stable, growing by 4.2% to £10 billion.
The US market is set to see a significant spike in investment across the second half of the year, spearheaded by the culmination of the presidential election – with political spend alone set to reach £12 billion this year.
Further solid ad spend growth is expected next year and in 2026, with WARC forecasting +7.2% year-on-year followed by +7%, amounting to a global ad market worth £938 billion.
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In terms of individual sectors, retail media (+21.3%), social media (+14.2%) and search (+12.1%) are set to lead digital growth in 2024, with those three channels alone accounting for for over 85% of online spend – with each benefitting from increased AI adoption.
“The global ad market has doubled in size over the last decade, with advertising investment growing almost three times faster than economic output since 2014,” WARC director of data, intelligence and forecasting, James McDonald said.
“Three companies – Alphabet, Amazon and Meta – have been the largest beneficiaries from this period of expansion, attracting seven in ten incremental ad dollars over the last ten years.”
He continued: “With retail media expected to lead ad spend growth over the coming years, and with new, diverse players emerging in ad selling – from Uber to Chase – we are once again seeing the value of first party data in targeting the right person with the right message at the right time. Such data, combined with new AI enhancements, will constitute the fabric of the advertising industry for the next decade and beyond.”
Social media however has emerged as the largest single channel measured by WARC, registering a total ad spend of £184 billion, having overtaken search for the first time last year. It accounts for 22.6% of all global ad spend this year, predicted to rise to 23.6% in 2026.
Unsurprisingly, Meta remains the largest player on the market – commanding a 62.6% share this year, which is however being eroded by Douyin and TikTok owner Bytedance, which now draws a fifth (20.1%) of all social spend, up from a share of just 9.3% five years ago